claim: Bitcoin trades range-bound (~$52k–$68k) with no >13% weekly move — the quarterly options expiry has cleared, ETF flows are weak, and sentiment is in Extreme Fear.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if Bitcoin's daily closes all stay within $52k–$68k for Jun 29–Jul 5 (no close outside the band).

title: Bitcoin stays stuck near $60k — a quiet, fearful week


claim: The Fed makes no move this week and the higher-for-longer regime holds — markets keep pricing ~zero cuts in 2026, with the surprise risk a HIKE, not a cut.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if the Fed makes no rate change Jun 29–Jul 5 (none scheduled; next FOMC Jul 29) AND the modal Polymarket 'Fed rate cuts in 2026' market stays at 0 cuts through Jul 5.

title: Wall Street has given up on 2026 Fed rate cuts


claim: US stock and bond markets are fully closed Friday July 3 (July 4 observed), with a bond half-day Thursday — a thin, headline-sensitive tape with weekend gap risk.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if US equity + bond markets are closed Fri Jul 3 (Independence Day observed). Scheduled-certain — excluded from the skill score.

title: A thin, holiday-shortened week — US markets shut Friday


claim: After weekend US–Iran strikes, the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted and Brent holds above ~$70 with upside skew — no return to a calm, normalized tape this week.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if Brent crude trades above $70 at any point Jun 29–Jul 5 AND Hormuz traffic does NOT durably normalize to pre-crisis levels by Jul 5.

title: Oil keeps a war premium as the Strait of Hormuz stays contested


claim: Early-July seasonality favors a bounce — July 1 has closed green for the S&P 500 in ~90% of the last 21 years, after a 5-day Nasdaq slide and quarter-end selling.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if the S&P 500 closes higher on Wed Jul 1 than its Jun 30 close.

title: The calendar's most bullish day is this week


claim: The June payrolls report is released Thursday Jul 2 (pulled forward for the holiday) and shows job growth slowing from May's pace.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if the June nonfarm-payrolls print (BLS, Thu Jul 2) comes in below May's +172k headline.

title: June jobs report lands a day early — and hiring keeps cooling


claim: At its July 5 meeting, the OPEC+ voluntary-cut group approves another output increase rather than pausing or cutting.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if the OPEC+ meeting (~Jul 5) approves another output increase for August, per the official communique (vs a pause or a cut).

title: OPEC+ meets Sunday and likely opens the taps again


claim: Tesla reports Q2 deliveries around Thursday Jul 2 — the week's biggest single-stock catalyst — with consensus near 406k.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if Tesla publishes its Q2 2026 delivery figures by Jul 5 (the report landing, not a beat/miss). Scheduled-certain — excluded from the skill score.

title: Tesla's Q2 delivery number drops this week


evidence_note: US equity + bond markets closed Fri Jul 3 2026 (Independence Day observed) — SIFMA/NYSE calendar.

outcome: true


evidence_note: BLS CES0000000001 2026-06: MoM change +57k vs threshold +172k → true


evidence_note: BTC: all 7 daily closes within [52000,68000] → TRUE


evidence_note: true (conf 0.95): The evidence consistently indicates that OPEC+ approved an output increase for August 2026. Multiple sources confirm this decision, specifying an increase of 188,000 barrels per day. For instance, source [wir-0] states, "OPEC+ Approves 188,


evidence_note: true (conf 0.95): The evidence indicates that Tesla published its Q2 2026 vehicle delivery figures on July 2, 2026. Multiple sources confirm the release of the delivery report on this date, including Electrek, qz.com, Yahoo Finance, and CNBC. For instance, E


evidence_note: BRENT max daily close 73.15 vs $70 → price leg TRUE; news 'The Strait of Hormuz did NOT durably normalize to pre-crisis traffic levels by Jul 5 2026.' → true (conf 0.90): The evidence indicates ongoing conflict and instability in the region surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which suggests that traffic levels have not normalized to pre-crisis levels. Specifically, the U


evidence_note: true (conf 0.90): The evidence indicates that the Federal Reserve did not make any rate changes between June 29 and July 5, 2026. According to source [mar-1], the Federal Reserve voted unanimously to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. Additionally, s


claim: Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday; Amazon reports Thursday. Three of the market's largest AI-spending receipts arrive inside 24 hours.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if Microsoft and Meta publish their scheduled results on July 29 and Amazon publishes its scheduled results on July 30. Scheduled-certain and excluded from the skill score.

title: The AI capex week lands: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon


claim: The MPC leaves Bank Rate unchanged on Thursday. Above-target inflation blocks a cut; softer labour data blocks a hike.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if the Bank of England's July MPC decision leaves Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%; FALSE if Bank Rate is raised or lowered.

title: The Bank of England holds at 3.75%


claim: The BoJ leaves its policy rate at 1.0% on Friday. One month after a hike, it waits for more inflation and yen evidence.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if the Bank of Japan leaves its short-term policy interest rate unchanged at 1.0% at the July 30–31 meeting; FALSE if it raises or lowers the rate.

title: The Bank of Japan pauses after June's hike


claim: The Fed leaves rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. The hike risk is real later in 2026, not at this meeting.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if the July 28–29 FOMC statement leaves the target federal-funds range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%; FALSE if the range is raised or lowered.

title: The Fed stays on hold — no July hike


claim: Shipping remains materially below pre-war traffic through July 31, and Brent records at least one daily close above $90.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic has not durably returned to pre-war levels by July 31, 2026 AND Brent records at least one daily close above $90 between July 24 and July 31; FALSE if either condition fails.

title: Hormuz does not normalize in seven days


claim: June core PCE eases from May's 3.4% to 3.3% year over year or less. Inflation stays above target, but it does not reaccelerate.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if BEA reports June 2026 core PCE inflation at 3.3% year over year or lower, using the one-decimal figure in the Personal Income and Outlays release; FALSE at 3.4% or higher.

title: Core PCE cools to 3.3% or lower


claim: Advance Q2 real GDP prints above zero. Growth is slower, but the first estimate does not show a recession quarter.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if BEA's advance estimate reports annualized real U.S. GDP growth above 0.0% for Q2 2026; FALSE if it reports 0.0% or a contraction.

title: The U.S. dodges a Q2 contraction


evidence_note: FOMC maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29.


evidence_note: BEA advance estimate reported Q2 real GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, above 0.0%.


evidence_note: BEA reported June core PCE inflation of 3.3% year over year, meeting the 3.3%-or-lower rule.


evidence_note: The MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% on July 30.


evidence_note: The Bank of Japan maintained the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 1.0%.


evidence_note: Microsoft and Meta published results July 29; Amazon announced Q2 results July 30. All three required disclosures landed by the frozen deadline.


evidence_note: Brent closed above $90 on July 24, 29, and 31 (maximum $96.78); Kpler and Lloyd’s List data showed Hormuz traffic remained far below pre-war levels through the deadline.


evidence_note: Brent futures closed above $90 on July 24, 29, and 31 (maximum $96.78); Kpler and Lloyd’s List data showed Hormuz traffic remained far below pre-war levels through the deadline.

reason: The terminal receipt encoded the Yahoo query separators as data; this append-only amendment supplies the working price URL plus a stable EIA/FRED series reference and preserves the original receipt.


claim: Coinbase finishes lower too — the second leg of the engine's crypto-proxy fade. 61%.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if Coinbase (COIN) closes lower on 2026-08-10 than its 2026-08-03 daily close; FALSE if it closes flat or higher. Settled on MacroGuru's daily price cache — the same series both dates.

title: Coinbase slips as crypto cools


claim: The Turkish lira weakens again — USD/TRY finishes the week higher than it started. The engine's single strongest read this week: 79%.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if USD/TRY's daily close on 2026-08-10 is higher than its 2026-08-03 daily close (the lira weakens over the week); FALSE if it closes flat or lower. Settled on MacroGuru's daily price cache — the same series both dates.

title: The lira keeps sliding


claim: MicroStrategy finishes the week lower — the engine's biggest expected drop in the crypto-proxy complex. 61%.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if MicroStrategy (MSTR) closes lower on 2026-08-10 than its 2026-08-03 daily close; FALSE if it closes flat or higher. Settled on MacroGuru's daily price cache — the same series both dates.

title: MicroStrategy fades with the crypto-levered trade